Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on March 26?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 20°C in Hong Kong on March 26.

With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 20°C. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES'. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 20°C.
• 2 The probability edge suggests the market is accurately priced.
• 3 Current confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Limited time to expiry may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.
• 5 Historical weather patterns in March may influence future forecasts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.