Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on March 26?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 21°C in Hong Kong on March 26.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', the consensus is that the highest temperature will not hit 21°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a very low likelihood of the temperature reaching the specified threshold.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 21°C.
• 2 The probability of 0.05% for 'YES' suggests minimal expectation for this outcome.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 0.95.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.