Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 26?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 22°C in Hong Kong on March 26.

With a market probability of 99.8% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not be 22°C. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching that temperature. The edge of 0.8 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures reaching 22°C.
• 2 Historical weather data supports lower temperature expectations for this date.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable with low volatility.
• 4 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential last-minute changes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.