Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 18?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Hong Kong's temperature on March 18.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.9% likelihood that the highest temperature will not reach 24°C in Hong Kong on March 18. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a consensus against the temperature threshold. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 25 hours, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus against the temperature reaching 24°C.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.