Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 23?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Hong Kong's temperature on March 23.

With a market probability of 99.75% for a NO outcome, it suggests a strong consensus against the highest temperature reaching 24°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of the YES outcome. The confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between YES and NO is significant.
• 3 Historical weather data may support the NO prediction.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with low volatility.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with only 1 hour until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.