Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 24?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 24°C in Hong Kong on March 24.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, it indicates a strong consensus against the temperature reaching 24°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal likelihood for a temperature rise to that level. The edge of 0.95 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 24°C.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest minimal chance for a high of 24°C.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is accurately reflecting expectations.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate, suggesting some uncertainty remains.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding unpredictability to the forecast.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.