Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 27?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 24°C in Hong Kong on March 27.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 24°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of a temperature rise above this threshold.

• 1 Market shows extreme confidence in temperatures below 24°C.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slight chance of temperatures reaching 24°C.
• 3 Current market pricing suggests fair valuation with minimal edge.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to any potential shifts.
• 5 Weather forecasts are key drivers in this prediction market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.