Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 23?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 25°C in Hong Kong on March 23.

With a market probability of 99.9% for NO, it indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 25°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal expected fluctuations in temperature predictions. The edge of 0.9 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 25°C.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests strong confidence in this prediction.
• 3 Historical weather data may support the current market outlook.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with only 1 hour until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.