Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 18?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 26°C in Hong Kong on March 18.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not hit 26°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of the threshold being met.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in temperatures below 26°C.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 2.05%.
• 3 Current market pricing indicates fair valuation with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited at 17 hours, adding urgency to predictions.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.