Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 24?

High confidence in temperatures reaching 26°C in Hong Kong on March 24.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 99.75% probability for temperatures to reach 26°C. The Pulse AI also supports this with a 98.25% probability, indicating a high level of agreement among participants. The edge of -1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view of the forecast.

• 1 Market probability indicates overwhelming confidence in the outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge suggests no significant mispricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate, indicating some uncertainty remains.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.