Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 26?

Market strongly favors temperatures below 26°C in Hong Kong on March 26.

The prediction market indicates a 99.9% probability that the highest temperature in Hong Kong will not reach 26°C on March 26. Both the market and Pulse AI show a consensus against this temperature threshold, suggesting a strong belief in cooler conditions.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.9%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating a NO at 99%.
• 3 The edge of 0.9 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level at 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.