Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 29?

Market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 26°C in Hong Kong on March 29.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (98.95%) that the highest temperature in Hong Kong will not reach 26°C on March 29. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome. With only 2 hours until expiry and a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO outcome at 98.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 2.55%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, only 2 hours remaining.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.