Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 26?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 27°C in Hong Kong on March 26.

With a market probability of 99.9% for NO, the consensus is that the highest temperature will not reach 27°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, indicating a low likelihood of the temperature meeting or exceeding this threshold.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures reaching 27°C.
• 2 Current forecasts do not support a high likelihood of exceeding this temperature.
• 3 Historical temperature data for March in Hong Kong typically shows lower averages.
• 4 Liquidity in the market suggests confidence in the NO outcome.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts in predictions.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.