Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 27?

The market strongly favors a NO for Hong Kong's temperature reaching 28°C on March 27.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, it indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of the temperature reaching 28°C. The Pulse AI probability further supports this view, suggesting minimal chance for a YES outcome. The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Market probability suggests a very low chance of reaching 28°C.
• 3 Pulse AI aligns closely with market expectations.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market movements.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.