Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 30?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 29°C in Hong Kong on March 30.

With a market probability of 99.85% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 29°C. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a slight divergence but still favoring the NO outcome, suggesting a stable outlook on this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures reaching 29°C.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests confidence in cooler weather forecasts.
• 3 Historical weather data may support the current predictions for this date.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.