Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on March 31?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 13°C in Istanbul on March 31.

The market indicates a 99.95% probability that the highest temperature in Istanbul will not reach 13°C on March 31, suggesting a consensus on warmer conditions. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for this outcome, reinforcing the market's stance. With only 3 hours until expiry, the current pricing appears stable and fairly reflective of expected weather patterns.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors temperatures above 13°C.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of 13°C.
• 3 High confidence level suggests stability in current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, limiting potential for significant market shifts.
• 5 Edge of 0.95 indicates market is fairly priced based on available data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.