Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 15°C in Istanbul on March 31.

With a market probability of 91.45% for NO, the consensus is that the highest temperature will not reach 15°C. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for YES at 10.05%, indicating some uncertainty. However, the edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 15°C.
• 2 Weather forecasts are critical in shaping predictions for this market.
• 3 Historical temperature data for late March in Istanbul supports lower temperatures.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, allowing for efficient price adjustments.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 2 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.