Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 28?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 14°C in London on March 28.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, it suggests a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 14°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating minimal expected deviation from the market's stance. The edge of 0.95 implies that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 14°C.
• 2 Forecast models currently do not support reaching 14°C.
• 3 Historical weather data for late March in London shows lower temperatures.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with low volatility.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.