Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 20?

The market favors a NO outcome for London's temperature reaching 15°C on March 20.

With a market probability of 81% for NO, participants largely expect the highest temperature in London to be below 15°C on March 20. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for YES at 22%, indicating a modest divergence in sentiment. The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced assessment of the weather forecast.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Weather forecasts indicate cooler temperatures for the date in question.
• 3 Historical data shows March temperatures in London often below 15°C.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with active participation.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with only 2 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.