Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 28?

High probability indicates strong consensus that Madrid's temperature will reach 16°C on March 28.

The market shows a very high probability of 99.95% for the temperature in Madrid to be 16°C on March 28, suggesting a strong consensus among participants. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this prediction at 99%, indicating confidence in the forecast. The edge of -0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on available data.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a YES outcome.
• 2 Current weather forecasts support the high probability of reaching 16°C.
• 3 Historical temperature data for late March in Madrid aligns with this prediction.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, allowing for accurate pricing.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, but current conditions are favorable.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.