Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 29?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Madrid's temperature on March 29.

With a market probability of 95.5% for NO, it suggests a strong consensus against the highest temperature reaching 16°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a well-priced market with moderate confidence. The time to expiry is short, which may add urgency to any potential shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities from Pulse AI are closely aligned with market expectations.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The time to expiry is only 22 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.