Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on March 30?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 23°C in Madrid on March 30.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not be 23°C. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, indicating a low likelihood of this temperature being reached. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 23°C.
• 2 Historical weather data for Madrid in late March typically shows lower temperatures.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in the prediction.
• 4 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating consensus.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential last-minute changes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.