Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 12?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 45°F in NYC on March 12.

With a market probability of 0% for temperatures being 45°F or below, participants are confident it will be warmer. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, with a 99% probability for temperatures exceeding 45°F. The edge of 1 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures at or below 45°F.
• 2 The Pulse AI indicates a very low probability for the YES outcome.
• 3 The market shows a strong consensus, with no liquidity issues apparent.
• 4 Confidence level of 65 suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.