Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 17?

The market is nearly evenly split on NYC's temperature reaching 50°F on March 17.

With a market probability of 49.5% for YES and 50.5% for NO, the prediction is very close to a tie. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors YES at 52.5%, indicating a marginally higher expectation for warmer temperatures, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Market probabilities are closely matched, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight lean towards warmer temperatures.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate, reflecting mixed expectations.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 5 Current sentiment shows a balanced view on temperature outcomes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.