Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on March 31?

High temperatures in NYC are likely to reach 74°F or higher on March 31.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of temperatures in New York City exceeding 74°F on March 31, with a market probability of 79.50%. The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 76.5%, suggesting a consensus on warmer weather, though the market is considered fairly priced with an edge of -3.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors higher temperatures significantly.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is minimal, indicating alignment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 16 hours, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced, suggesting limited room for arbitrage.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.