Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 21?

Market favors temperatures outside the 58-59°F range for NYC on March 21.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of temperatures in New York City reaching between 58-59°F on March 21, with a strong consensus against this outcome. Both the market and AI probabilities suggest that the likelihood of this temperature range is minimal, reflecting a general expectation of cooler weather. Confidence in the market's pricing is moderate, suggesting some uncertainty remains.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors temperatures outside the target range.
• 2 AI predictions align closely with market sentiment, indicating consensus.
• 3 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in forecasts.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, which may limit significant market shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.