Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or higher on March 26?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 14°C in Paris on March 26.

With a market probability of 99.95% for a NO outcome, participants overwhelmingly expect temperatures to remain below 14°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus on this forecast, though with slightly lower confidence. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment is strongly against temperatures reaching 14°C.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests low expectations for warmer weather.
• 3 Historical weather data may support the current predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect volatility in predictions.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.