Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 12?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 16°C in Paris on March 12.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', it suggests a high confidence that the temperature will not reach 16°C. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a slight chance of 1% for 'YES', but overall, the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 0.95.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 16°C.
• 2 Current weather forecasts do not indicate a rise to 16°C.
• 3 Historical data suggests March temperatures in Paris rarely reach this level.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable with low volatility.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.