Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 23?

High probability indicates strong consensus that Paris will not reach 16°C on March 23.

The market shows a 99.80% probability that the highest temperature in Paris will not reach 16°C on March 23, suggesting a strong consensus among participants. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, indicating a high level of confidence in the prediction. The edge of -0.8 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced assessment of the temperature forecast.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors temperatures below 16°C.
• 2 High liquidity indicates active participation in the market.
• 3 Historical weather data supports low temperatures for this date.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the prediction.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.