Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on March 25?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 70°F in San Francisco on March 25.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, it indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 70°F. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a stable outlook. The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment overwhelmingly favors temperatures below 70°F.
• 2 Historical weather data for March in San Francisco supports lower temperature expectations.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in the NO prediction.
• 4 The time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.
• 5 The edge suggests that the market is accurately reflecting the probabilities based on available information.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.