Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on March 28?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 18°C in Seoul on March 28.

With a market probability of 96.15% for temperatures below 18°C, there is a strong consensus against reaching this threshold. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities. Given the confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 18°C.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a slight underestimation of potential warmth.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the market's pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, which may limit significant shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Weather forecasts are a key factor influencing market dynamics.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.