Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 16?

Market strongly favors temperatures above 10°C in Shanghai on March 16.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 96.5% for temperatures not reaching 10°C in Shanghai on March 16. With a confidence level of 65 out of 100, the market appears fairly priced, indicating a consensus that warmer temperatures are expected. The AI model aligns closely with the market, suggesting a low likelihood of a cold snap.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors temperatures above 10°C.
• 2 AI model slightly overestimates the chance of reaching 10°C.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Current weather trends suggest warmer conditions leading up to the date.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.