Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 18?

Market strongly favors that Shanghai's temperature won't reach 10°C on March 18.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.45%) that the highest temperature in Shanghai will not be 10°C on March 18, contrasting with a lower AI probability of 1.05% for the same outcome. This suggests a consensus among participants that the temperature will remain below this threshold, with a confidence level of 65 out of 100. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Weather forecasts are critical in shaping market expectations.
• 3 Historical temperature data for March may influence predictions.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating participant confidence.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 24 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.