Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 14°C in Shanghai on March 16.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that the highest temperature in Shanghai will not reach 14°C on March 16, with a NO probability of 99.95%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 1.55%. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.

• 1 Market heavily favors NO outcome at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Current weather forecasts do not support a high temperature of 14°C.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.