Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on March 28?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 14°C in Shanghai on March 28.

With a market probability of 99.95% for temperatures exceeding 14°C, the consensus is that it is highly unlikely for the temperature to be at or below this threshold. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1% for this outcome, indicating strong confidence in warmer conditions. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in temperatures above 14°C.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low probability for YES.
• 3 Edge of 0.95 suggests market pricing is accurate and stable.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to any potential shifts.
• 5 Current conditions and forecasts support the NO outcome strongly.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.