Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 13?

The market suggests a low chance of Shanghai reaching 15°C on March 13.

Current market probabilities indicate an 83.5% likelihood that the highest temperature in Shanghai will not reach 15°C on March 13. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with an 80.5% probability for the NO outcome. Given the confidence level of 60/100, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

• 1 Market probability favors NO outcome significantly.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 Current weather trends do not support a rise to 15°C.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.