Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 16?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 15°C in Shanghai on March 16.

With a market probability of 98.75% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 15°C. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for YES, indicating some uncertainty. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate reliability in these predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors temperatures below 15°C.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate reliability in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 25 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 Pulse AI shows slightly higher probabilities for YES, suggesting some uncertainty.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.