Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21?

Market indicates a low likelihood of Shanghai reaching 16°C on March 21.

The prediction market shows a 21.5% probability for the highest temperature in Shanghai to be 16°C on March 21, with a stronger consensus against it at 78.5%. The AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a fair market price with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome significantly.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for YES than the market.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 12 hours, increasing market volatility.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.