Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 18?

Market predicts Shanghai's temperature will be below 16°C on March 18.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that the highest temperature in Shanghai will not reach 16°C, with a NO probability of 98.45%. The AI model slightly diverges, estimating a 2.05% chance for YES, indicating some uncertainty. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 16°C.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests strong confidence in the forecast.
• 3 Historical weather data may support the low temperature prediction.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating reliable trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 24 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.