Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on March 24?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 18°C in Shanghai on March 24.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% chance that the highest temperature in Shanghai will be below 18°C on March 24. The low market probability for temperatures reaching or exceeding 18°C suggests strong confidence in cooler weather conditions for that date.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors temperatures below 18°C.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight probability for temperatures above 18°C at 1%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is only 1 hour, indicating urgency in the market.
• 5 The edge of 0.95 suggests the market is fairly priced.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.