Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?

Market favors temperatures above 19°C in Shanghai on March 22.

The prediction market shows an 82% probability for temperatures not reaching 19°C in Shanghai on March 22, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 19°C at 19.5%. The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 1.5 and a confidence level of 60 out of 100, indicating moderate uncertainty as the expiry approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards temperatures exceeding 19°C.
• 2 The AI model's prediction is closely aligned with market probabilities.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in temperature forecasts.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to the market dynamics.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.