Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March 29?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 22°C in Taipei on March 29.

With a market probability of 91% for temperatures exceeding 22°C, the consensus leans heavily towards warmer conditions. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with an 84% probability for temperatures above the threshold, indicating a strong expectation of higher temperatures. However, the edge of 7 suggests that there is insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment indicates a strong belief in temperatures exceeding 22°C.
• 2 The probability gap between YES and NO suggests low confidence in a cooler forecast.
• 3 Historical weather data may influence perceptions of temperature norms for late March.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears limited, impacting the robustness of predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 44 hours remaining until the market's expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.