Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on March 24?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 26°C in Taipei on March 24.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, it indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not hit 26°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal likelihood of a temperature rise to that level. Given the edge of 0.95, the market appears to be accurately priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 26°C.
• 2 Historical weather data suggests March temperatures in Taipei typically do not reach this level.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to any last-minute changes.
• 5 The edge indicates that the market is well-aligned with expert forecasts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.