Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on March 30?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Taipei's temperature on March 30.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% chance that the highest temperature in Taipei will not reach 30°C on March 30. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a 97.95% probability for the NO outcome, suggesting a strong consensus against the temperature threshold being met.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 2.05%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry for the market is currently unknown.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.