Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 17?

The market strongly predicts Tokyo will not reach 10°C on March 17.

The market shows a definitive NO at 100%, indicating a strong consensus against the temperature reaching 10°C. The Pulse AI also aligns with this view, assigning a 99% probability to the NO outcome. Given the confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly against reaching 10°C.
• 2 Current forecasts do not support a temperature of 10°C on the specified date.
• 3 Historical temperature data for March in Tokyo suggests lower averages.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with clear consensus on the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, but confidence remains high in the current prediction.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.