Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 12?

The market strongly predicts Tokyo's temperature will reach 12°C on March 12.

With a market probability of 99.95% for a YES outcome, there is a strong consensus that Tokyo will experience a high of 12°C on March 12. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 99%, indicating confidence in this prediction. The edge of -0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on available data.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a YES outcome.
• 2 The high probability reflects strong confidence in weather forecasts.
• 3 Historical data supports temperatures around this range for March.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable with minimal fluctuations.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.