Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 15?

The market strongly favors that Tokyo's temperature won't reach 13°C on March 15.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', the consensus is that the highest temperature in Tokyo will not be 13°C on March 15. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this, suggesting a low likelihood of the event occurring. The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is fairly priced and reflects a high level of confidence in the prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the temperature reaching 13°C.
• 2 The high confidence level of 80/100 suggests strong market conviction.
• 3 Time to expiry is short, with only 3 hours remaining, adding urgency.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Historical weather data for Tokyo in March typically shows lower temperatures.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.