Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 18?

The market predicts the temperature in Tokyo will not reach 13°C on March 18.

With a market probability of 0% for a 13°C temperature in Tokyo, the consensus is firmly against this outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a 1% probability for 'YES', indicating strong confidence in the 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Market sentiment overwhelmingly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest a stable expectation for lower temperatures.
• 3 Historical weather data for March in Tokyo supports cooler averages.
• 4 Liquidity appears sufficient for market participants to act on new information.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, but confidence remains high at 90/100.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.