Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 18?

The market predicts the highest temperature in Tokyo will not reach 14°C on March 18.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus that the highest temperature in Tokyo will be below 14°C on March 18, with a 100% NO probability. The AI model also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of reaching the specified temperature. With only an hour until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows a definitive NO stance at 100%.
• 2 AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 99% NO.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, limiting potential for market shifts.
• 5 Current weather patterns do not support a rise to 14°C.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.