Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or higher on March 12?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 14°C in Tokyo on March 12.

With a market probability of 99.85% for NO, participants overwhelmingly expect the highest temperature to remain below 14°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus on this outlook, though with slightly lower confidence. The edge of 0.85 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 14°C.
• 2 Current weather forecasts support the NO prediction.
• 3 Historical data suggests similar temperature patterns in March.
• 4 Liquidity is low, indicating limited trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is high with only 1 hour until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.